Theses on Modelling
Alex de Jonge
Using GIS in Analyzing Population Development - A case study on the spatial factors behind population decline in the Province of Fryslân 2000-2008
Population development can be regarded as the result of natural increase and migration, both caused by a manifold of explanatory factors. This research focuses on population development in the province of Fryslân over the years 2000-2008 and the use of GIS in analyzing this subject. Two applications of GIS are described: visualization of spatial patterns and spatial analysis. Examples of spatial analysis are distances, area calculations, overlay functions, neighborhood functions and travel time.
The explanatory factors related to population development are divided into three themes: population characteristics, planning & infrastructure and amenities & economy. For a number of factors the correlation with population development can be demonstrated. These explanatory factors include the number of inhabitants, age composition, average household size, planning hierarchy, railway stations, housing stock and amenities. The correlations between straight line distances, travel time by car, employment and population development can not be proven.
Of all explanatory factors the development of the housing stock can be regarded as the most strongly correlated explanatory factor. Also the factors related to population characteristics have a relative strong correlation: population size, age composition and average household size.
Supervisors:
Professor: Prof. dr. Tejo Spit (Utrecht University)
Supervisor(s): Dr. Jan Jaap Harts (Utrecht University), Dr. René Monnikhof & Ir. Cor de Wit (Province of Fryslân)
Reviewer: -
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Niels van der Vaart
Quantifying the effect of housing policy on land use change - Explorative research on the relation between national housing policy and patterns of land use development
In the process of land use modelling and predicting future scenario's of land use, transition rules are derived from changes in land use observed in the past. This approach to land use modelling does not take the underlying driving forces of land use change into account. This research aims to provide a view at land use change from a different angle, in which the driving forces of land use change are the main focus.
In an attempt to modestly contribute to the current research questions in the field of land use modelling, this research analyses the effects of national spatial planning policy in the Netherlands on patterns of residential land use development at municipal scale. In the perspective of this research the expected results derived from the policies have a leading position.
An analysis of spatial planning policy provides an overview of important policies that are expected to influence residential land use development. For these policies, the expected influence on residential land use development is formulated. Inspired by literature from land use and land cover research, metrics are formulated to test if these expected patterns of residential land use could be observed. Based on the expected patterns of residential land use developments in areas with different policies, hypotheses concerning the values for the metrics are formulated to test empirically. In order to test the hypotheses, residential land. (...)
Supervisors:
Professor: Prof. Dr. Ir. Arnold Bregt (Wageningen UR)
Supervisor(s): Dr. Stan Geertman (Utrecht University), Prof. Dr. Ir. Peter Verburg (VU Amsterdam)
Reviewer: Drs. Ir. Ellen-Wien Augustijn (UT/ITC Enschede)
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Ivo Visser
Route determination in disaster areas - Using predictions and introducing the option to wait to improve routing results
Disasters caused by human action or nature are part of life. Preventing disasters from occurring is often not possible. Lives can be saved or lost depending on our response to the disaster. Determining the fastest route to the people in need is therefore important. The determination of this fastest route is however not straight forward, since the environment the route is determined in has become chaotic as a result of the disaster. In this research attention focuses on ways to take the circumstances in the environment into consideration in an automated way.
A distinction is made between changes that can be predicted and changes that cannot be predicted. Based on literature the latter turns out to be done best by choosing a process of re-evaluating the route determined. Based on the degree of dynamism a static, semi-static, iterative or dynamic approach can be taken to this re-evaluation. In a static approach the route is determined only once based on the most current information at that time. When the circumstances change re-evaluation of that determined route can take place every time a change occurs (semi-static), every couple of minutes (iterative) or constantly (dynamic). (...)
Supervisors:
Professor: Prof. Dr. Ir. P.J.M. van Oosterom (TU Delft)
Supervisor(s): Drs. C.W. Quak (TU Delft)
Reviewer: Drs. B.J. Köbben (UT/ITC Enschede)
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Odunuga Olaniyi Vincent
Exploring spatial growth pattern of informal settlements through
Agent-based simulation
This research has explored the use of agent-based model for studying the spatial growth pattern of informal settlements in Mbagala, Ukonga and Kawa wards of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania from 1992 to 1998. A spatially explicit agent-based model is developed by adjusting an existing model (Economic disparity model) to incorporate the spatial physical structures of an urban area. The ABM is developed based on the locational decision making of people that develops into three major growth pattern of informal settlements: spontaneous growth, linear (road influenced) development and Infilling & outward spread. Emphasis is made on how to include the urban spatial physical structure into the model, and how the behavior of different income group of people translates into specific growth pattern.
Supervisors:
Professor: Prof Menno-Jan Kraak (ITC Enschede)
Supervisor(s): Ms. Ir. Ellen-Wien Augustijn & Dr Johannes Flacke (ITC Enschede)
Reviewer: Arend Ligtenberg (Wageningen University)
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Maria Konstatinou
Definition of future Commercial Land Use Patterns based on an
Analytical
This thesis examines the subjects of locational decisions and land use patterns
evolution. Statistical methods, distance based techniques and GIS spatial analysis
used in order to develop a methodology for proposing the future commercial use of a
retail store placed within the commercial business district of a city. Spatial
interactions explored between the different types of retail stores and estimations
made for the future commercial land uses of stores given their locations. The
research ends with the description of the spatial structure of the commercial business
district of Volos city in a future time as through the processes of the methodology all
the empty stores of the area assigned to one of the existing commercial uses.
Supervisors:
Professor: Steven de Jong (Utrecht University)
Supervisor(s): Derek Karssenberg (Utrecht University)
Reviewer: Ellen-Wien Augustijn (ITC Enschede)
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Rob de Wolff
Developing an Environmental Fog Potential Map using a GIS
The Environmental Fog Potential Map (EFPM) is the spatial representation of the EFP Index (EFPI), an index that expresses the potential occurrence of radiation fog at a location. The main objective of the thesis was to develop and validate the EFPI.
This was done by the following steps:
1. Determination and selection of the factors that contribute to radiation fog.
2. Development of a conceptual model for the EFPI.
3. Implementation of the EFPI in ArcGIS.
4. Calibration and consecutive validation of the index.
Due to limited availability of calibration data the EFPI was validated for limited conditions only.
Recommendations on further development and improvement of the EFPI have been made. The
conditionally validated EFPI was used for the production of the EFPM for an area around Amsterdam airport.
Supervisors:
Professor: Arnold Bregt (Wageningen Universiteit en Researchcentrum)
Supervisor(s): Sytze de Bruin (Wageningen Universiteit en Researchcentrum)
Reviewer: Derek Karssenberg (Universiteit Utrecht)
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Download the implementation document